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BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
100 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND PATRICA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 104.0W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas
* North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas
* North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was located
near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 104.0 West. Patricia is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through today with a reduction in forward
speed. A turn toward the northwest and then toward the north is
forecast tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of
Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area Friday
afternoon or evening.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with
higher gusts. Patricia is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
additional strengthening is forecast through early Friday, and
Patricia is expected to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane
through landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the
hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to first reach the warning areas by late
tonight or early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area late Friday.

RAINFALL:  Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and
Guerrero later today into Saturday. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions
of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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