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TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
1500 UTC WED OCT 21 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N  97.5W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 120SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE  60SE  30SW  80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N  97.5W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N  96.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.4N  99.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.5N 101.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.7N 103.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.3N 103.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.5N 104.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N  97.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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