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HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

There has been little change in the satellite appearance of Patricia
since the earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft left the hurricane.
Based on this, the initial intensity remains 175 kt.  Some
fluctuations in strength are possible before landfall, but it is
expected that Patricia will make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane
in southwestern Mexico in less than 12 hours.  After landfall, a
combination of the mountainous terrain of Mexico and increasing
shear should cause the cyclone to rapidly weaken, with the system
likely to dissipate completely after 36 hours.

The hurricane has turned northward since the previous advisory
and the initial motion is now 005/9.  Patricia is about to
recurve into the westerlies between a mid-level anticyclone to its
east and a deep-layer trough over northwestern Mexico and the
southwestern U. S.  These features should steer the cyclone
generally north-northeastward across western and northern Mexico
until dissipation occurs.  The new forecast track is an update of
the previous track.

The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend.  This system should be
non-tropical in nature.  However, this cyclone is expected to draw
significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could
result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days.  Refer to
statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for
details.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening.
Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning
area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are spreading across the area.  Residents
in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area
should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be
catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes
landfall.

2.  In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.

3. At this time, the Category 5 winds are occurring over a very
small area near the center - about 15 miles across.  A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Patricia
before landfall to see what changes in intensity and structure have
occurred.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 17.6N 105.5W  175 KT 200 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 19.8N 105.1W  130 KT 150 MPH...INLAND
 24H  24/1200Z 22.9N 103.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 36H  25/0000Z 25.7N 101.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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