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HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

Patricia continues to explosively intensify, with the eye becoming
warmer and better defined, along with a solid ring of very cold -90C
cloud tops in the eyewall.  Subjective and objective Dvorak
estimates support an initial wind speed of 140 kt, and an An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance unit aircraft is en route to check the
intensity of the hurricane. Patricia is estimated to have
intensified 85 kt in the past 24 hours, from a tropical storm to a
category 5 hurricane during that time.  This is a remarkable feat,
with only Linda of 1997 intensifying at this rate in the satellite
era.  The hurricane could strengthen a little more before increasing
southwesterly shear causes Patricia to weaken some by Friday
afternoon, although it should remain an extremely dangerous
hurricane through landfall.  The latest forecast is close to the
previous NHC prediction, updated for the higher initial wind speed.
After landfall, the hurricane should rapidly weaken over the high
terrain and dissipate by 48 hours over the Sierra Madre mountains.

The hurricane continues to turn more poleward and slow down, with an
initial motion estimate of 330/9.  The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged with Patricia expected to turn northward during
the next 12 hours as it moves around the periphery of a mid-level
high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane is then
forecast to accelerate north-northeastward between the high and an
amplifying trough over northwestern Mexico.  The latest NHC
forecast is close to the previous one, nudged a bit to the east to
better reflect the latest consensus guidance.

Model guidance continues to suggest that the mid-level remnants and
moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of
low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major
rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more
information, please refer to products from your local National
Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations
to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be
completed as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect
the warning area overnight or early Friday.

2.  In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero beginning
late tonight and continuing into Saturday.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 16.2N 105.1W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W  145 KT 165 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W  125 KT 145 MPH...ON THE COAST
 36H  24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 48H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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