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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015

The cloud pattern remains poorly organized and consists of a small
area of deep convection with little or no banding features.
Microwave data suggest that the low-level center is still on the
eastern edge of the convective region.  Given that the Dvorak
CI-numbers have not changed significantly, the initial intensity is
kept at 25 kt.

It is surprising that the depression has not responded to the
quite favorable environment of low shear and warm waters yet. In
fact, most the guidance indicated that the depression should have
been already a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane. Since
the opportunity for strengthening is still there, the NHC forecast
insists on intensification and calls for the depression to become a
hurricane in about 3 days.

The depression is trapped south of strong subtropical ridge moving
toward the west at 12 kt. Global models indicate that the ridge will
gradually move eastward. This steering pattern should allow the
cyclone to turn more to the west-northwest in about 3 days, and
eventually to move northward by the end of the forecast period. The
NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and
the GFS/ECMWF solutions. The spread in the guidance has decreased a
little bit, and in general, most of the models now turn the cyclone
northward around 140 W. This increases slightly the confidence in
the long range track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 10.1N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 10.0N 125.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 10.0N 127.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 10.0N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 10.3N 130.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 11.5N 133.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  20/0600Z 13.0N 136.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  21/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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