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TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015
0900 UTC TUE SEP 29 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12-24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 101.7W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  85 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 101.7W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 101.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.5N 101.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.7N 101.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.9N 102.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.2N 103.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.2N 105.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 101.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


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