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TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015
2100 UTC SUN SEP 27 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO...MEXICO TO LAZARO CARDENAS...MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH
AREA TONIGHT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 102.9W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE  20SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE  30SW  70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 102.9W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 103.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.6N 102.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.1N 102.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.5N 101.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.9N 101.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.0N 103.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 17.0N 104.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 17.5N 106.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 102.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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