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HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015
300 PM MDT TUE SEP 08 2015

Linda still has an impressive satellite presentation, and appears
to have peaked shortly after the last advisory was issued. A
distinct eye in infrared imagery is surrounded by a CDO with cloud
top temperatures of -70 to -80C. The initial intensity is set to
110 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimate of T5.5/102 kt
from SAB and T6.0/115 kt from TAFB. The 34-kt wind radii were
adjusted outward based on an ASCAT-B pass around 1700 UTC.

Linda will be crossing the 27C SST isotherm soon, and the cyclone
should begin to slowly weaken. Rapid weakening is expected between
24 and 48 hours as the cyclone moves over much cooler SSTs and into
a stable, dry environment. Remnant low status is forecast by 72
hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and is close to the latest intensity consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 325/12, as Linda has wobbled a bit
to the left of the previous track. The overall track forecast
reasoning remains unchanged, as a weakening Linda should move
northwestward under the influence of a subtropical ridge centered
over Mexico. The remnant low is then forecast to turn west-
northwestward and westward by the end of the period as it is steered
by the low-level flow. The new NHC forecast has been adjusted to
account for the initial motion through 36 hours, and is largely an
update of the previous NHC track after that time. The NHC forecast
continues to lie on the left side of the guidance envelope, between
the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus.

Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja
California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions
of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 21.9N 114.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 23.0N 115.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 24.4N 117.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 25.6N 118.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 26.5N 119.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 27.4N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1800Z 27.5N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1800Z 27.5N 125.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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