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HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015
300 AM MDT TUE SEP 08 2015

Recent microwave data indicate that the inner-core structure of
Linda has improved since the previous advisory.  A couple of AMSU
overpasses show that the primary convective band once again
wraps around the center, and that a ragged eye is trying to
form.  The microwave images and 0516 UTC ASCAT data were very
helpful in locating the center of Linda, and these data indicate
that the center is more embedded within the CDO than earlier
in the evening.  The initial intensity is maintained at 80 kt, which
is between the various Dvorak intensity estimates.  Given the recent
increase in inner core organization, the initial wind speed estimate
could be a little conservative.

Although the official intensity forecast shows no change in
strength during the next 12 hours, environmental conditions
consisting of warm water and relatively low shear could allow
for a little intensification this morning.  After that time,
gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and less favorable
thermodynamic factors should cause weakening.  The spin down should
become more rapid in 36 to 48 hours when Linda moves over SSTs
below 26 degrees Celsius and into a more stable environment.  The
tropical cyclone is predicted to become a remnant low in about
72 hours.

Linda has been moving a little to the right of previous estimates,
and the motion is now north-northwest or 335/9 kt. The model
guidance suggests that the motion will bend back toward the
northwest later today as the cyclone moves around the western
portion of a subtropical ridge over northern Mexico.  After 72
hours, the remnant low is expected to turn west-northwestward, and
then westward in the low-level flow to the west of the Baja
California peninsula.  The model envelope has again shifted to the
right and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja
California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions
of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 19.8N 113.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 21.1N 113.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 22.5N 115.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 23.8N 116.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 25.0N 117.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 26.5N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/0600Z 27.0N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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