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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015
300 AM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015

Deep convection associated with the depression has increased in
coverage overnight, but the overall organization of the cyclone has
not changed very much.  The center appears to be located near the
eastern edge of the deep convection due to moderate northeasterly
shear.  An ASCAT overpass at 0416 UTC was very helpful in locating
the center and revealed wind speeds of around 30 kt, which is used
as the initial intensity for this advisory. The shear is forecast
to decrease during the next 24 hours, which should allow for steady
strengthening, and the depression is likely to become a tropical
storm very soon.  The cyclone is expected to remain in a favorable
environment through late Tuesday, and the NHC forecast calls for
the system to become a hurricane within the next couple of days.
This is supported by the SHIPS and LGEM models.  After 72 hours,
decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing shear should
cause weakening by days 4 and 5.

The depression is moving northwestward at about 10 kt.  The cyclone
is expected to continue moving northwestward over the next 3 to 4
days while it remains on the southwestern side of a mid-level
ridge over Mexico.  The models are in relatively good agreement on
this scenario, but have trended a little northward after 72 hours
and indicate a faster forward motion through much of the forecast
period.  As a result, the new NHC forecast is faster than the
previous advisory, and has also been nudged northward after 48
hours. The new forecast lies along the southern edge of the guidance
envelope in best agreement with the GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 13.7N 108.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 14.9N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 16.4N 111.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 18.2N 112.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 19.7N 114.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 21.7N 116.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 23.0N 118.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 24.0N 122.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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