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TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
300 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015

South-southwesterly shear around 30 kt has displaced all remaining
deep convection northeastward over the central Baja California
peninsula, more than 120 n mi northeast of the presumed low-level
center.  A recent ASCAT pass sampled the western half of the
circulation and showed no tropical storm force winds.  The initial
intensity is set at 35 kt as a blend of the latest Dvorak numbers,
with the assumption that tropical storm force winds might still be
occurring within the eastern side of the circulation, which wasn't
sampled by the scatterometer.  Strong shear will continue advecting
the leftover convection away from the low-level circulation, and
barring redevelopment of new convection, Kevin will likely become a
remnant low later today.  Winds are forecast to quickly decrease,
and the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN intensity
consensus.  Kevin is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, as shown by
the latest global model fields.

The center has been difficult to locate, but microwave images
suggest that it has been tugged northeastward by the convection.
The initial motion is 010/6 kt, but now that Kevin is becoming a
shallow cyclone, it should be steered slowly northwestward and
then westward by 36 hours.  The latest NHC track forecast is a
little east of the previous one, only because of the adjusted
initial position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 23.0N 114.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 23.6N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/0600Z 24.0N 115.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/1800Z 24.1N 116.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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