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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112015
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 16 2015
The tropical depression is not very well organized. Satellite
images indicate that the circulation is elongated from
north-northwest to south-southeast with multiple centers along the
trough axis. The associated deep convection has been shrinking, and
only a small patch remains on the west side of the circulation. The
initial intensity estimate remains 30 kt, in agreement with the
Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from UW-CIMSS. The
depression is headed toward cooler water and an environment of
drier air and stronger shear. These unfavorable conditions should
cause the system to degenerate to a remnant low on Monday and
likely dissipate in about four days, or possibly sooner. The NHC
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and follows
the trend in the guidance.
The depression is situated between a mid- to upper-level low to its
southwest and a subtropical ridge over the southwestern United
States. These features are expected to continue to steer the
depression, or its remnants, west-northwestward to northwestward
away from land until it dissipates. The NHC track forecast has
been adjusted to the south of the previous one, mainly to account
for a more southerly initial position.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0300Z 19.7N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 21.2N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 23.3N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1200Z 24.9N 126.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z 26.0N 128.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0000Z 27.7N 132.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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