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TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015

Enrique has changed little in organization over the past several
hours as it continues to generate small bursts of convection north
of the center.  There is no recent scatterometer data from the
central core, so the intensity is held at 35 kt based on continuity
from the previous advisory.  The cyclone should decay over sea
surface temperatures of 25C, and it is expected to degenerate into a
remnant low pressure area in 24 hours or so.  It should be noted
that while the forecast calls for the remnant low to dissipate after
96 hours, several dynamical models forecast it to last for more than
120 hours.

The initial motion is now 270/3.  The track guidance suggests that
Enrique and its remnants should make a counter-clockwise loop during
the next three days or so, followed by a northwestward motion.  The
new track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 20.5N 137.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 20.5N 137.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 20.1N 137.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/0000Z 19.8N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/1200Z 20.0N 137.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/1200Z 21.0N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/1200Z 22.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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