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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
200 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2015

Enrique has become a swirl of low- and mid-level clouds with
isolated thunderstorm activity as the center moves over sea surface
temperatures of about 25C.  The initial intensity is decreased to
30 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB.  The forecast track keeps the cyclone over cool waters,
and it is expected to degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours
and dissipate completely between 96-120 hours.

A jog to the north has occurred since the last advisory, and the
initial motion is now 300/7.  A west-northwestward motion should
continue for another 12 hours or so.  After that, steering currents
weaken, and the cyclone or its remnants should slow down as it
turns westward and southward.  The global models agree that the
remnants of Enrique will be slow moving during the 48-96 hour
period, although there are differences in the details of the tracks.
The new forecast track is similar to the previous track in showing
a southward turn after 36 hours, followed by little motion from
48-96 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 20.2N 135.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 20.6N 136.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 20.6N 137.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/0600Z 20.5N 137.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1800Z 20.1N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1800Z 19.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/1800Z 19.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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