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TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015

While the convection associated with Enrique continues to decrease,
data from the RapidScat instrument on the International Space
Station suggest the system still had tropical storm force winds
near 1100 UTC.  Based on these data as well as Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.
Enrique is encountering cool sea surface temperatures and a drier
air mass, and this combination should lead to the the cyclone's
dissipation. Unless the convection makes an unexpected return,
Enrique should weaken to a depression during the next several hours
and degenerate into a remnant low in 24-36 hours, if not sooner.

The initial motion is 295/7. A slow west-northwestward motion should
continue for another 24 hours or so.  After that, steering currents
weaken, and the cyclone should turn westward and slow down.  Most of
the global models take the remnant low slowly west-southwestward,
then southward in a few days.  The latest NHC track is close to the
previous advisory and lies near the center of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 19.9N 135.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 20.3N 136.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 20.5N 137.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 20.4N 137.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1200Z 20.2N 138.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1200Z 19.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/1200Z 19.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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