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TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015
200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015
The convective organization of Enrique continues to wane with
the remaining thunderstorm activity located well to the north
of the center. A couple of recent partial ASCAT passes
showed winds to near 35-kt, so Enrique remains a tropical
storm for this advisory. Gradual weakening is expected during the
next couple of days while the cyclone moves over cool water and
in an environment of moderate south-southwesterly shear. Enrique
is forecast to become a remnant low within a day or so.
The initial motion estimate is 295/6. A slow west-northwestward
motion should continue for another 24 hours, before steering
currents weaken and the cyclone turns westward and slows down.
Most of the global models take the remnant low slowly
west-southwestward, then southward in a few days. The latest NHC
track is close to the previous advisory and the GFS ensemble mean.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 19.5N 134.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 19.9N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 20.4N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 20.4N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0600Z 20.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z 19.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0600Z 19.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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