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TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015

The center is now embedded within the deep convection, which, in
fact, has increased during the past several hours. The upper-level
outflow has also expanded westward and became better defined.
Consequently, the Dvorak numbers are a little higher at 1200 UTC.
Data from ASCAT indicate that the cyclone's intensity is 40 kt, and
these winds are confined to a small area to the north and east of
the center. Enrique is now crossing a small tongue of warm waters,
and this probably caused the slight increase in organization. Soon,
the circulation will move over cooler waters, and on this basis, the
NHC forecast calls for little change in strength today with a
gradual weakening thereafter. The cyclone is forecast to become a
remnant low in about 72 hours or sooner.

The best estimate of the initial motion is 305/8 kt. The cyclone is
is forecast to continue on a track between the northwest and the
west-northwest during the next couple of days, steered by the
flow to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge. In about 3 days,
these steering currents are forecast to collapse due to the approach
of the larger circulation of Dolores, and most likely, Enrique
will meander until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 18.1N 129.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 18.3N 130.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 18.7N 131.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 19.5N 133.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 20.0N 134.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 20.5N 136.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/1200Z 20.5N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1200Z 20.3N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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