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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015

The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the
last several hours.  Deep convection remains mainly confined to a
curved band to the south of the center and in an area over the
northeastern quadrant. Although the latest Dvorak classifications
from TAFB and SAB support raising the intensity to minimal tropical
storm strength, 35 kt, I am maintaining the wind speed at 30 kt
based on the steady state nature of the system since the ASCAT pass
earlier today.

The depression has wobbled northward over the past few hours, but a
longer term motion is west-northwestward at 5 kt.  A slightly
faster west-northwestward to northwestward motion is predicted
during the next 3 to 4 days while the cyclone is steered by a
narrow mid-level ridge.  Beyond that time, the system is expected
to slow down when the steering currents collapse due to the
approach of Dolores to its east.  The NHC track forecast has been
nudged to the north of the previous one, primarily to account for
the more northward initial position.

The cyclone has an opportunity to strengthen during the next
couple of days while it remains in low wind shear conditions and
over relatively warm water.  There does appear to be a fair amount
of stable air to the north of the system, however, and that could
limit the amount of intensification that occurs.  Beyond 48 hours,
the cyclone is expected to move over cooler water and into a drier
air mass.  These conditions should provoke weakening.  The NHC
intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and is in best
agreement with the SHIPS model.  It is worth noting that none of the
intensity guidance shows much strengthening of the system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 14.0N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 15.0N 127.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 15.7N 128.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 16.4N 129.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 16.9N 131.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 17.7N 134.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 18.5N 136.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 18.6N 137.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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