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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
900 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015

Convection associated with the area of low pressure located
well southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has become
better organized since yesterday, with a band now wrapping around
the western semicircle of the system.  Overnight scatterometer data
and early morning visible satellite pictures indicate that the
circulation has become sufficiently well defined, therefore
advisories are being initiated on the sixth tropical depression of
the 2015 eastern Pacific hurricane season. The initial intensity
is set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with a TAFB Dvorak
classification of 2.0.

The depression is forecast to remain over warm water and in a low
shear environment during the next few days, however, drier and more
stable air to the northwest of the cyclone may prevent significant
intensification.  The NHC intensity forecast calls for gradual
strengthening during the next few days, and is in best agreement
with the SHIPS guidance.  The cyclone is expected to move over
cooler waters which should induce some weakening at days 4 and 5.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/6.  The depression is
forecast to turn west-northwestward as a ridge builds to its north
during the next day or two.  After that time, the cyclone should
maintain a general westward to west-northwestward track.  Later in
the period, global models suggest that the steering flow should
weaken around the depression as Dolores' circulation approaches from
the west.  This pattern should cause the depression's forward speed
to decrease.  Although the track guidance is in general agreement
with this scenario, there is some spread in how much latitude the
depression will gain during the next couple of days.  The NHC track
is closest to the GFS ensemble mean, which is a little south of the
multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1600Z 13.6N 125.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 14.5N 126.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 15.6N 127.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 16.3N 128.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 16.8N 130.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 17.5N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 17.8N 136.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 18.2N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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