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TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
1500 UTC MON JUL 13 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 106.0W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE  60SE  40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 106.0W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 105.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.5N 107.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  60SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.8N 108.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE  90SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.1N 109.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.4N 109.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.7N 112.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 21.2N 115.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.7N 118.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 106.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
 
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