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TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
0900 UTC MON JUL 13 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 105.0W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE  50SE  30SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 105.0W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.9N 106.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE  60SE  40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.1N 107.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.4N 108.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.9N 109.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.2N 111.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 20.6N 113.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.8N 116.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 105.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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