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TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
1500 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO
CORRIENTES.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.8W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  50SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.8W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.1N 103.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.8N 104.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.3N 106.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.8N 107.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.8N 109.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 110SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 19.7N 110.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 20.3N 113.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 101.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
 
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