ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015

Dolores' cloud pattern has not changed much since the last advisory.
The cyclone has been maintaining a small area of relatively shallow
convection southwest of the partially exposed low-level center.  An
ASCAT pass at 0454 UTC showed peak winds of 34-kt winds over the
western part of the circulation, and it is assumed that higher winds
are still occurring closer to the center.  The initial wind speed is
held at 40 kt to be consistent with the earlier ASCAT pass.  The
cyclone is temporarily passing over a narrow tongue of relatively
warmer water but should reach much colder waters within the next 12
to 24 hours. Once this occurs, Dolores should lose any remaining
convection and become a post-tropical remnant low in another day or
so.  The large circulation will take some time to spin down even
without convection, so the NHC intensity forecast shows a gradual
decay, similar to the global models and the intensity consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 290/09. Global models show Dolores
turning northwestward and north-northwestward within 24 hours as it
is steered between a subtropical ridge over the southern United
States and a mid- to upper-level trough offshore the California
coast.  Once the cyclone fully decouples and becomes shallow, it
should decelerate and move northward or northeastward in the low-
level flow prior to dissipation.  The new track forecast is nudged
just a bit to the right of the previous one to be closer to the
multi-model consensus.

Moisture associated with Dolores should spread into southern and
central California late this weekend and early next week, possibly
triggering isolated areas of heavy rains across the region.  Please
refer to statements from your local weather office for information
on hazards specific to your area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 21.9N 117.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 22.8N 118.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 25.0N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 27.4N 120.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/0600Z 29.5N 120.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0600Z 31.3N 120.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/0600Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

NNNN