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Hurricane DOLORES


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HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015

Dolores is developing a cloud-filled 20 n mi wide eye in visible
imagery, with the coldest cloud tops in the eyewall colder than
-80C. The initial intensity remains 75 kt based on AMSU estimates
and a Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  While the hurricane has good
cirrus outflow, water vapor imagery and earlier microwave imagery
suggest that mid-level dry air is entraining into the southwestern
semicircle, possibly to near the eyewall.

The initial motion is now 295/6.  The hurricane is currently
being steered by a low- to mid-level ridge over northern Mexico.
The dynamical models suggest the ridge should strengthen during the
next 48-72 hours, which should cause Dolores to move a bit faster
toward the west-northwest.  After that time, the ridge should weaken
as a trough moves southward along the coast of California.  This
evolution should allow Dolores to turn northwestward by 120 hours.
There is some spread in the model guidance during the 72-120 hour
period, with the Canadian, GFDL, UKMET, and several of the consensus
models showing a more northward motion than the GFS and ECMWF.  This
part of the new forecast track will lean toward the GFS/ECMWF
solutions and thus lies to the left of the model consensus.

Dolores should continue to intensify through the next 36 hours or so
in an environment of warm water and light vertical wind shear.  The
SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index still shows a 30 percent chance of
a 30 kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours.  However,
the dry air entraining into the cyclone makes it unclear whether
rapid intensification will occur.  The new intensity forecast calls
for steady strengthening to a major hurricane in 36 hours, and it
is possible this part of the forecast is conservative.  After 36-48
hours, Dolores is expected to encounter decreasing sea surface
temperatures, which should cause steady or rapid weakening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 18.0N 108.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 18.4N 109.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 19.0N 110.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 19.6N 111.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 20.3N 112.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 23.5N 118.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 27.0N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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