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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
700 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...COMPACT CARLOS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 102.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 102.3 West.  Carlos is
moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed
by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday.  On the forecast track,
Carlos will move parallel to the southern coast of Mexico over the
next day or two.  However, only a small deviation to the north of
the forecast track would bring the center of Carlos closer to the
coast.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours and
Carlos is forecast to become a hurricane again by early Tuesday.

Carlos is small cyclone.  Tropical-storm-force winds only extend
outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane
warning area today.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area tonight or early Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states
of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Wednesday, and
maximum totals of 15 inches possible.  These rains may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF:  Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days.  These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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