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BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...CARLOS STILL MEANDERING SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 100.0W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Carlos was located
by satellite and radar data near latitude 15.0 North, longitude
100.0 West. Carlos has been erratically moving during the past few
hours, but is expected to move toward the northwest near 2 mph (4
km/h) by later today.  A west-northwest to northwest motion at an
increasing forward speed is expected over the next day or two.
Carlos is expected to move nearly parallel to the coast of Mexico
for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast over the next couple of
days.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by tonight or Sunday.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area by Sunday night.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on
Monday.

RAINFALL:  Carlos is expected to produce 2-4 inches of rain across
the southwestern coast of Mexico through Tuesday with locally
higher amounts around 6 inches.  The states of Mexico affected
include Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.  These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
especially in areas of higher terrain.

SURF:  Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next few days.  These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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