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BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 100.2W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Lazaro
Cardenas to Punta San Telmo and a Tropical Storm Warning from Tecpan
de Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Carlos was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 100.2 West. Carlos is
moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this motion,
with an increase in forward speed, is expected over the next day or
two.  Carlos is expected to move nearly parallel to the coast for
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Carlos is the third hurricane of the 2015
eastern Pacific season.  Some increase in strength is forecast over
the next couple of days.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by tonight or Sunday.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area by Sunday night.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on
Monday.

RAINFALL:  Carlos is expected to produce 2-4 inches of rain across
the southwestern coast of Mexico through Tuesday with locally
higher amounts around 6 inches.  The states of Mexico affected
include Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.  These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
especially in areas of higher terrain.

SURF:  Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next few days.  These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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