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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
400 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...CARLOS REFUSES TO MOVE MUCH...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 100.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36-48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 100.2 West. Carlos is
moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general
motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or two,
and Carlos could become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by Saturday night or Sunday.

RAINFALL:  Locally heavy rains are beginning to spread over portions
of the southern coast of Mexico, primarily in the states of Oaxaca
and Guerrero, and will continue to affect these areas during the
next couple of days.

SURF:  Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next few days.  These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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