ZCZC MIATCMEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
0300 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 103.5W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  30SE  20SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 103.5W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 103.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.5N 104.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.1N 104.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.9N 105.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.8N 106.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 21.2N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 103.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


NNNN