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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
2100 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 100.9W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 110SE  75SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 100.9W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 100.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.8N 101.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.3N 102.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.6N 103.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.3N 104.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.2N 105.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  60SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.4N 105.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 24.5N 106.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 100.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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