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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1500 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
EAST OF ACAPULCO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 100.4W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE  75SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 100.4W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 100.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.3N 101.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.8N 102.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.3N 102.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.9N 103.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N 104.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE   0SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  60SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 21.9N 105.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 23.8N 105.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 100.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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