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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
0300 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36-48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 100.1W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  70SE  60SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 100.1W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 100.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.0N 100.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.4N 100.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  40SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  70SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.8N 101.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.3N 102.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.5N 104.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 19.5N 106.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 22.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 100.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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