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HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

The satellite presentation is somewhat improved this evening with
the clouds near the embedded center of circulation cooling to -80C.
Furthermore, an earlier SSMI/S overpass revealed development of a
small banding eye feature in the cloud pattern, despite the 8-10 kt
of northerly shear.  Accordingly, the initial intensity is kept at
65 kt for this advisory.  Little change in strength is expected
during the next 12-24 hours, then gradual weakening is anticipated
through the remaining period as indicated by the SHIPS intensity
model, the global models, and the Florida State Superensemble.  The
aforementioned weakening trend is based on the expectation that the
cyclone will be moving into an area of large-scale subsidence
and drier air spreading southward from Baja California and northwest
Mexico.  The increasingly unfavorable environment should result in
Carlos becoming a remnant low in 3 days.

Carlos has continued to move west-northwestward or 295/5 kt over
the past 12 hours.  A turn to the north-northwest is expected
Wednesday morning as the cyclone enters a growing weakness in the
subtropical ridge extending westward from central Mexico.  Carlos
is forecast to continue on this general motion until dissipation in
5 days.  The NHC forecast has again been adjusted a bit to the left
of the previous advisory to side with the reliable TVCN model
consensus and the Florida State Superensemble.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 17.4N 103.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 17.8N 104.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 18.5N 105.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 19.2N 106.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 19.8N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 20.6N 107.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0600Z 21.4N 107.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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