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HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

Satellite data indicate that Carlos has strengthened with a ragged
eye becoming apparent on the latest visible imagery.  In addition,
radar data from Acapulco show that an eyewall has become
established, although it is still open on the north side.  Dvorak
estimates from TAFB/SAB are 65 kt, so this will be the initial
intensity.

After an eastward jog overnight, Carlos appears to have resumed a
northwestward drift.  For the rest of the weekend, a building ridge
over Mexico is expected to steer Carlos generally to the
west-northwest.  Thereafter, a mid-level trough near the Baja
California peninsula should cause Carlos to turn northwestward.
However, the hurricane is now farther to the east than expected
yesterday, which has moved the track closer to the southwestern
coast of Mexico.  Track guidance has been steadily shifting
eastward, and a few models are now showing landfall in Mexico. While
I am not yet ready to show that solution, the NHC prediction has
been shifted eastward to account for the greater threat to Mexico.
Accordingly, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm
warning and hurricane watch for a portion of the southwestern coast.

Since Carlos is expected to remain over very warm water with
decreasing shear, it seems likely that further intensification will
occur over the next day or so.  However, there is very poor
agreement on what will occur after that time due to competing
atmospheric factors and possible land interaction.  The new NHC
forecast stays on the upper end of the guidance and is raised from
the previous one.  It is worth noting that the normally
conservative HWRF is above the latest NHC prediction.

With Carlos becoming a hurricane, this is the second earliest on
record that the third hurricane has occurred in the eastern
Pacific season, one day behind the third hurricane of 1956.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 14.9N 100.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 15.2N 100.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 15.8N 101.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 16.3N 102.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 16.9N 103.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 18.6N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  17/1200Z 20.5N 106.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  18/1200Z 22.5N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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