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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
400 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015


Carlos looks a little better organized this afternoon with the
center now fully embedded within a more symmetric and deeper central
dense overcast. Microwave images show some evidence of inner core
features, but they remain fragmented.  Since Dvorak estimates are
unchanged, the initial intensity will remain 50 kt, but this could
be a bit conservative based on recent trends.

The storm continues to be stationary within an area of light
steering between a mid-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico
and a ridge over northwestern Mexico.  The ridge is forecast to
build over central Mexico on Sunday, which should then cause Carlos
to move toward the west-northwest, nearly parallel to the coast of
Mexico, into early next week at an increasing forward speed. A
trough over the southwestern United States should move into
northwestern Mexico, which could cause the storm to take a turn
toward the northwest by Tuesday.  Model guidance remains in
relatively good agreement on this scenario, and the latest NHC
forecast is close to the previous one.

The intensity forecast continues to be challenging.  During the next
day or so, northeasterly shear is forecast to persist, so only a
slight intensification of Carlos is anticipated.  Thereafter,
although the shear is expected to become light, a combination of
warm upper-level temperatures, drier air aloft, and possible land
interaction could help keep Carlos from strengthening significantly.
By day 5, cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere should help to
weaken Carlos.  Although most of the intensity guidance no longer
calls for Carlos to become a hurricane, this guidance has had a
noted low bias this season, and the GFS still shows quite a bit of
intensificaton.  Thus, I am inclined to stay at the upper edge of
the guidance, and near the previous NHC forecast.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 14.7N 100.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 14.9N 100.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 15.2N 100.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 15.6N 101.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 16.1N 102.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 17.3N 104.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 19.5N 106.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 22.0N 107.8W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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