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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

Deep convection has expanded near the center of Carlos this
evening, but the overall appearance of the cloud pattern has not
changed much.  The initial intensity has been nudged up to 50 kt, a
little below the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  The
intensity forecast reasoning has not changed, with some moderate
shear expected to persist for the next couple of days.  As a result,
only gradual intensification is forecast during this time, but
Carlos should still reach hurricane strength in a day or so.  Some
additional strengthening is forecast through 72 hours, with a little
weakening shown late in the period as the cyclone begins to move
over somewhat cooler waters.  The intensity guidance has trended a
bit downward this cycle, but the NHC forecast is largely an update
of the previous one and close to a consensus of the SHIPS, LGEM,
and HWRF. The GFDL is still considered an outlier due to land
interaction not shown in the official track forecast.

The initial motion estimate is 345/02, as Carlos has wobbled a bit
north-northwestward this evening based on the latest geostationary
and microwave satellite fixes.  A slow north-northwestward to
northwestward motion is expected during the next 36 to 48 hours
while the steering currents remain weak.  After that time, a deep-
layer ridge will amplify over the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern
Mexico, which should result in Carlos moving more steadily west-
northwestward after 48 hours, followed by a turn toward the
northwest by day 5.  While the NHC forecast still keeps the center
of Carlos offshore of the coast of southern Mexico, the forecast
track has been nudged a little to the right through 48 hours and
lies between the GFS, UKMET, and GEFS mean on the left and the ECMWF
and HWRF on the right.  Later in the forecast, the NHC track is
largely an update of the previous one and is close to a blend of the
GFS and ECMWF.

The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch from
Acapulco and Zihuatanejo since the updated forecast brings tropical
storm force winds very close to the coast in 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 14.5N 100.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 14.8N 100.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 15.0N 100.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 15.2N 101.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 15.4N 101.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 16.3N 103.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  16/0000Z 17.5N 105.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 19.2N 107.3W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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