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HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
400 AM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

Satellite data indicate that Blanca continues to rapidly
strengthen as a small eye has become apparent during the past
couple of hours.  This is consistent with earlier microwave data
that revealed a small pinhole eye, however there has been no recent
microwave imagery to examine the current inner-core structure.
Dvorak Data T-numbers were 5.0 or 90 kt from both TAFB and SAB, but
with the recent satellite trends, the initial intensity is set at 95
kt.  This is an increase in intensity of more than 40 kt over the
past 24 hour period.

Rapid intensification is forecast to continue during the next 24
hours while Blanca remains over very warm water and in a low shear
environment.  The statistical-dynamical models (SHIPS, LGEM,
and Florida State Superensemble) continue to show significant
intensification during the next day or so, and all of these models
bring Blanca to major hurricane status very soon. The official
forecast is very close to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance during the first
2 to 3 days.  After 72 hours, increasing southerly wind shear and
cooler waters are expected to cause fairly quick weakening as
Blanca approaches the Baja California peninsula.

Blanca has been nearly stationary overnight.  Little motion is
expected today, but a north-northwestward motion is forecast to
begin on Thursday when a mid-level ridge builds to the northeast
of the hurricane.  Blanca is expected to accelerate north-
northwestward in south-southeasterly flow between the aforementioned
ridge and a mid-level trough off the west coast of California.  The
track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there
remains some differences in the forward speed of the hurricane.  The
GFS remains the fastest of the dynamical models, while the ECMWF is
the slowest.  The NHC forecast is again close to the previous
advisory and near the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 12.6N 104.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 12.5N 104.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 12.9N 104.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 13.7N 105.4W  130 KT 150 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 15.1N 106.4W  130 KT 150 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 18.1N 108.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 21.1N 109.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 24.0N 110.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

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