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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
400 AM CDT MON JUN 01 2015

The tropical depression is producing a large area of deep convection
with very cold cloud tops, however, the convection does not appear
to have become significantly better organized overnight.  Satellite
intensity estimates are T2.0 on the Dvorak scale and the initial
intensity is held at 30 kt.  The strong northwesterly shear that is
currently affecting the tropical cyclone is forecast to decrease
significantly during the next 12 to 24 hours.  This should allow
the depression to strengthen into a tropical storm later today.
By Tuesday, the cyclone is expected to be within a low shear
environment and over very warm waters.  These conditions favor a
faster rate of intensification and the NHC forecast follows the
SHIPS guidance, which calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane
in about 48 hours, and obtain major hurricane status in 3 to 4
days.  The intensity forecast is also supported by the global
model guidance, which significantly deepen the cyclone in 2 to 3
days.

The center has been extremely difficult to locate overnight,
so the initial motion of 305/5 is much more uncertain than normal.
Overall, little motion is forecast during the next few days
while the cyclone remains in an area of weak steering flow.  After
72 hours, a mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen over northern
Mexico.  This should cause the cyclone to begin moving northwestward
at a faster forward speed.  The NHC forecast is close to the
multi-model consensus and the GFS ensemble mean.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 13.3N 104.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 13.7N 104.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 13.7N 104.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 13.6N 105.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 13.4N 105.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 13.1N 105.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 14.5N 106.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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