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HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015
500 PM AST WED NOV 11 2015

Kate is not expected to be a tropical cyclone much longer. The
cloud pattern has become asymmetric, due to very strong westerly
shear, with the low-level center displaced to the west of the
associated deep convection.  In addition, stable stratocumulus
clouds are wrapping around the south side of the circulation, and
there is some evidence of a developing warm front to the east of the
center. The initial intensity is held at 65 kt, based on the
Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  The combination of continued
strong shear and the interaction with an extratropical cyclone,
located just to the west of Kate, should cause the hurricane to lose
tropical characteristics tonight.  After extratropical transition,
only a slow decay is predicted due to fairly strong baroclinic
forcing. The new intensity forecast is largely an update of the
previous one.

Kate continues to race east-northeastward, and the latest initial
motion estimate is about the same as before, 065/38 kt.  A slowdown
is expected to begin soon, and an erratic northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is likely during the next couple of days
while Kate interacts with, and then absorbs, the extratropical low
to its west.  After Kate and the extratropical low merge Thursday
night or early Friday, a faster northeastward motion is expected.
The new track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

This forecast was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 38.2N  56.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 40.1N  52.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  12/1800Z 41.5N  48.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  13/0600Z 42.2N  45.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  13/1800Z 43.9N  40.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  14/1800Z 51.9N  25.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  15/1800Z 57.7N  13.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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