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HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  31A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
800 AM AST MON OCT 05 2015

...JOAQUIN BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ON THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.6N 64.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located by satellite and Bermuda radar data near latitude 34.6
North, longitude 64.6 West. Joaquin is moving toward the
north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a turn toward the
northeast is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the
east-northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Joaquin will continue to move away from Bermuda today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).  A sustained wind speed of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to
58 mph (93 km/h) were reported at the Bermuda International Airport
during the past hour.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect Bermuda
this morning.

STORM SURGE:  Water levels should gradually subside today.  Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and potentially
damaging waves.

RAINFALL:  Rain will diminish across Bermuda this morning as Joaquin
moves away from the area.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next day or so.  Swells are affecting
much of the east coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the coast of Atlantic Canada during the next day or
two.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Even though Joaquin is passing well east of the
coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water
levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing
significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding
likely. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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