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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
200 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

...JOAQUIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON AS IT MOVES
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 72.0W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours.

Interests in the northwest Bahamas should monitor the progress of
Joaquin. Additional watches or warnings may be required later this
morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joaquin was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 72.0 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin is expected to move
near or over portions of the central Bahamas Wednesday night or
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and
Joaquin is forecast to become a hurricane later this morning.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km),
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the central
Bahamas by Wednesday night, with hurricane conditions possible by
late Wednesday night or early Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Joaquin is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible over San Salvador and
Rum Cay through Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches
are possible over the remainder of the Central Bahamas through
Thursday morning, with 1 to 2 inches expected over the Northwest and
Southeast Bahamas.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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