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TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015
1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  39.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  39.7W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N  39.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.7N  41.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.9N  43.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.2N  45.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.3N  46.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.5N  47.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 20.5N  47.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N  46.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N  39.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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