ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015
500 PM AST WED SEP 16 2015

The satellite presentation of the depression has degraded during
the past few hours, with dry air and southwesterly shear resulting
in the convection become displaced from the low-level center. The
convection itself has not become better organized, and has a rather
linear shape to the east and northeast of the center. The initial
intensity remains 25 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from
SAB. The prospects for the cyclone to strengthen, or even survive,
appear quite poor. The shear is forecast to increase markedly in the
next 12 to 24 hours, and the shear in combination with dry air
should result in the cyclone weakening to a remnant low by 48 hours.
The NHC forecast continues to show dissipation by 5 days, in best
agreement with the latest GFS forecast.

The exposed low-level center is located about a degree to the west
of the previous advisory estimate, with an initial motion of
310/07. The initial position and motion have resulted in a leftward
adjustment to the track forecast this cycle of 1 to 2 degrees. The
new NHC forecast lies between the shallow BAM and to the left of
the rest of the model guidance in the short term given the sheared
nature of the system and its current motion. After that time, the
NHC forecast is close to the HWRF and GEFS ensemble mean and still
left of the multi-model consensus aids. Given the current
disorganized state of the depression, the track forecast is quite
uncertain through the period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 15.2N  44.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 15.9N  45.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 17.0N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 18.0N  46.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 19.3N  47.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1800Z 20.5N  49.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/1800Z 21.5N  52.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

NNNN