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TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015
1100 AM AST THU SEP 10 2015

The cloud pattern of Henri remains disorganized with most of the
convection sheared off to the east and northeast of the center.
Visible images also indicate that the system has little organization
in the central core, with multiple smaller vortices rotating around
a mean center.  The initial wind speed remains 35 kt, although some
Dvorak estimates suggest it could have weakened to a tropical
depression.

Southwesterly shear and dry air is currently limiting the amount of
deep convection near the center of the cyclone.  Global models,
however, all weaken the shear later today, which could allow Henri
to strengthen while it moves over warm waters before it crosses the
north wall of the Gulf Stream in 36-48 hours.  Henri is still
forecast to lose tropical characteristics in a little over 2 days
and then weaken while it moves over very cold water with high
shear.  The intensity guidance is in relatively good agreement on
this scenario and the NHC forecast is very close to the previous
one.

Satellite fixes indicate that Henri is moving northward at about 8
kt.  The storm should accelerate northward today and northeastward
tomorrow as it encounters faster steering from the subtropical
ridge.  After that time, an even faster northeastward and then
eastward motion is predicted when the cyclone becomes embedded in
the mid-latitude westerlies.  There have been no significant changes
to the guidance, and the NHC track forecast is basically just an
update of the previous prediction.

The latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be
post-tropical, is based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean
Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 32.6N  60.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 34.5N  60.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 37.8N  60.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 41.4N  58.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 45.0N  53.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 49.0N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  14/1200Z 45.5N  22.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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