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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015
1100 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015

The depression remains sheared, with the low-level center located
just to the west of the western edge of the main area of deep
convection.  The initial intensity is kept at 30 kt, which is in
agreement with a Dvorak classification from SAB.  The vertical
shear over the depression, which is currently near 20 kt, is
forecast to diminish in 24 to 48 hours.  Therefore strengthening
seems likely until the cyclone passes north of the Gulf Stream.
By 72 hours, the system is forecast to be over water temperatures
near 17 deg C, so it should be extratropical by that time.  The
official intensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS guidance.

The depression has been meandering this morning and the current
motion estimate is an east-southeastward drift, or 120/3 kt.  Over
the next couple of days, a mid-level high is forecast to build to
the east and northeast of the tropical cyclone while a shortwave
trough moves into the northeastern United States.  This should
result in a northward motion at an increasing forward speed
beginning within 12 hours.  After 48 hours, the system should turn
to the right and move within the mid-latitude westerlies.  The
official track forecast is east of the previous one, but in good
agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus.  An
alternative scenario, shown by the GFS, is for the system to become
absorbed by an extratropical cyclone centered near New England in a
couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 30.7N  60.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 31.4N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 33.0N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 35.5N  61.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 38.8N  60.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 46.0N  54.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  13/1200Z 48.0N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  14/1200Z 48.0N  19.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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