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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 2(16)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 2(14)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 2(14)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) 2(15)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 2(14) 1(15)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 2(18) X(18)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 9(25) 1(26) X(26)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 8(22) 1(23) X(23)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) 2(21) 1(22)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 3(20) 2(22)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) 2(21)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) 2(20)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 2(17)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 3(13)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)
ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MAYAGUANA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GRAND TURK 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 24(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
LES CAYES 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 64 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
CAPE BEATA 34 63 X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63)
PUERTO PLATA 34 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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