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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13)
MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 5(19)
MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 5(19)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 4(24)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 11(24) 3(27)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 9(23) 3(26)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 9(23) 3(26)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 6(24) 2(26)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 18(23) 4(27) 2(29)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 21(30) 4(34) 1(35)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 19(30) 3(33) 1(34)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 3(28) 1(29)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 7(33) 1(34)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 8(31) 2(33)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 11(28) 2(30)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 11(25) 4(29)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 4(24)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 4(16)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 3(21) 2(23)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 5(20) 1(21) X(21)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) 4(28) 1(29) X(29)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MAYAGUANA 34 1 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
GRAND TURK 34 5 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
PUERTO PLATA 34 55 6(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
PUERTO PLATA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 86 X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PONCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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