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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD
AND SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUNTA PALENQUE
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN HAITI SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  65.3W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  65.3W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  64.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.2N  67.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.7N  70.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.1N  73.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.5N  75.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.2N  79.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 27.3N  80.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 29.5N  80.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N  65.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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