Tropical Storm ERIKA

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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
2100 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MONTSERRAT
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  52.8W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE  30SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  52.8W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  51.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.1N  55.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.7N  58.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.4N  61.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.2N  64.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.3N  69.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 22.5N  74.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 25.0N  78.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N  52.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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