Tropical Depression VANCE

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
100 AM PST WED NOV 05 2014

...VANCE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 106.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM NW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST.  THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF VANCE OR ITS REMNANTS
WILL MOVE INLAND OVER WESTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND VANCE WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE COMBINATION OF VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
AND NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12
INCHES THROUGH TODAY OVER THE STATES OF SINALOA...NAYARIT...AND
DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.  THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 AM PST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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